Stochastic Target Games with Controlled Loss
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- Ήρα Αλεξανδρίδης
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1 Stochastic Target Games with Controlled Loss B. Bouchard Ceremade - Univ. Paris-Dauphine, and, Crest - Ensae-ParisTech USC, February 2013 Joint work with L. Moreau (ETH-Zürich) and M. Nutz (Columbia)
2 Plan of the talk Problem formulation
3 Plan of the talk Problem formulation Examples
4 Plan of the talk Problem formulation Examples Assumptions for this talk
5 Plan of the talk Problem formulation Examples Assumptions for this talk Geometric dynamic programming
6 Plan of the talk Problem formulation Examples Assumptions for this talk Geometric dynamic programming Application to the monotone case
7 Problem formulation and Motivations
8 Problem formulation Provide a PDE characterization of the viability sets [ ] Λ(t) := {(z, p) : u U s. t. E l(z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T )) m ϑ V} In which : V is a set of admissible adverse controls U is a set of admissible strategies Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z is an adapted R d -valued process s.t. Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (t) = z l is a given loss/utility function m a threshold.
9 Application in finance Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) where t,x,y X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x models financial assets or factors with dynamics depending on ϑ Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y models a wealth process ϑ is the control of the market : parameter uncertainty (e.g. volatility), adverse players, etc... u[ϑ] is the financial strategy given the past observations of ϑ. Flexible enough to embed constraints, transaction costs, market impact, etc...
10 Examples [ ] Λ(t) := {(z, p) : u U s.t. E l(z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T )) m ϑ V} Expected loss control for l(z) = [y g(x)] Give sense to problems that would be degenerate under P a.s. constraints : B. and Dang (guaranteed VWAP pricing).
11 Examples Constraint in probability : [ Λ(t) := {(z, p) : u U s.t. P Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z ] (T ) O m ϑ V} for l(z) = 1 z O, m (0, 1). Quantile-hedging in finance for O := {y g(x)}.
12 Examples Matching a P&L distribution = Multiple constraints in probability : [ ( ) ] { u U s.t. P dist (T ), O γ i m i i I, ϑ V} Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (see B. and Thanh Nam)
13 Examples Almost sure constraint : Λ(t) := {z : u U s.t. Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) O P a.s. ϑ V} for l(z) = 1 z O, m = 1. Super-hedging in finance for O := {y g(x)}. Unfortunately not covered by our assumptions...
14 Setting for this talk (see the paper for an abstract version)
15 Brownian diffusion setting
16 Brownian diffusion setting State process : Z u[ϑ],ϑ solves (µ and σ continuous, uniformly Lipschitz in space) Z(s) = z + s t µ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dr + s t σ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dw r.
17 Brownian diffusion setting State process : Z u[ϑ],ϑ solves (µ and σ continuous, uniformly Lipschitz in space) Z(s) = z + s t µ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dr + Controls and strategies : s t σ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dw r.
18 Brownian diffusion setting State process : Z u[ϑ],ϑ solves (µ and σ continuous, uniformly Lipschitz in space) Z(s) = z + s t µ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dr + s t σ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dw r. Controls and strategies : V is the set of predictable processes with values in V R d.
19 Brownian diffusion setting State process : Z u[ϑ],ϑ solves (µ and σ continuous, uniformly Lipschitz in space) Z(s) = z + s t µ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dr + Controls and strategies : s t σ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dw r. V is the set of predictable processes with values in V R d. U is set of non-anticipating maps u : ϑ V U, i.e. {ϑ 1 = (0,s] ϑ 2 } {u[ϑ 1 ] = (0,s] u[ϑ 2 ]} ϑ 1, ϑ 2 V, s T, where U is the set of predictable processes with values in U R d.
20 Brownian diffusion setting State process : Z u[ϑ],ϑ solves (µ and σ continuous, uniformly Lipschitz in space) Z(s) = z + s t µ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dr + Controls and strategies : s t σ(z(r), u[ϑ] r, ϑ r ) dw r. V is the set of predictable processes with values in V R d. U is set of non-anticipating maps u : ϑ V U, i.e. {ϑ 1 = (0,s] ϑ 2 } {u[ϑ 1 ] = (0,s] u[ϑ 2 ]} ϑ 1, ϑ 2 V, s T, where U is the set of predictable processes with values in U R d. The loss function l has polynomial growth and is continuous.
21 The game problem Worst expected loss for a given strategy : [ ( ) ] J(t, z, u) := ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t ϑ V
22 The game problem Worst expected loss for a given strategy : [ ( ) ] J(t, z, u) := ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t ϑ V The viability sets are given by Λ(t) := {(z, p) : u U s.t. J(t, z, u) p P a.s.}. Compare with the formulation of games in Buckdahn and Li (2008).
23 Geometric dynamic programming principle How are the properties (z, m) Λ(t) and (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ),?) Λ(θ) related?
24 First direction : Take (z, m) Λ(t) and u U such that [ ( ) ] ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ϑ V
25 First direction : Take (z, m) Λ(t) and u U such that [ ( ) ] ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ϑ V To take care of the evolution of the worst case scenario conditional expectation, we introduce : [ ( Sr ϑ := ess inf E l Z u[ϑ r ϑ],ϑ ) ] r ϑ t,z (T ) F r. ϑ V
26 First direction : Take (z, m) Λ(t) and u U such that [ ( ) ] ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ϑ V To take care of the evolution of the worst case scenario conditional expectation, we introduce : [ ( Sr ϑ := ess inf E l Z u[ϑ r ϑ],ϑ ) ] r ϑ t,z (T ) F r. ϑ V Then S ϑ is a submartingale and S ϑ t m for all ϑ V,
27 First direction : Take (z, m) Λ(t) and u U such that [ ( ) ] ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ϑ V To take care of the evolution of the worst case scenario conditional expectation, we introduce : [ ( Sr ϑ := ess inf E l Z u[ϑ r ϑ],ϑ ) ] r ϑ t,z (T ) F r. ϑ V Then S ϑ is a submartingale and S ϑ t m for all ϑ V, and we can find a martingale M ϑ such that S ϑ M ϑ and M ϑ t = S ϑ t m.
28 We have for all stopping times θ (may depend on u and ϑ) [ ( ess inf E l Z u[ϑ θ ϑ],ϑ ) ] θ ϑ t,z (T ) F θ = Sθ ϑ ϑ V Mϑ θ.
29 We have for all stopping times θ (may depend on u and ϑ) [ ( ess inf E l Z u[ϑ θ ϑ],ϑ ) ] θ ϑ t,z (T ) F θ = Sθ ϑ ϑ V Mϑ θ. If the above is usc in space uniformly in the strategies, θ takes finitely many values, we can find a covering formed of B i (t i, z i ), i 1, such that J(t i, z i ; u) M ϑ θ ε on A i := {(θ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ)) B i }.
30 We have for all stopping times θ (may depend on u and ϑ) [ ( ess inf E l Z u[ϑ θ ϑ],ϑ ) ] θ ϑ t,z (T ) F θ = Sθ ϑ ϑ V Mϑ θ. If the above is usc in space uniformly in the strategies, θ takes finitely many values, we can find a covering formed of B i (t i, z i ), i 1, such that Hence J(t i, z i ; u) M ϑ θ ε on A i := {(θ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ)) B i }. K(t i, z i ) M ϑ θ ε on A i. where [ ( ) ] K(t i, z i ) := esssup ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t u U ϑ V i,z i (T ) F ti is deterministic.
31 We have for all stopping times θ (may depend on u and ϑ) [ ( ess inf E l Z u[ϑ θ ϑ],ϑ ) ] θ ϑ t,z (T ) F θ = Sθ ϑ ϑ V Mϑ θ. If the above is usc in space uniformly in the strategies, θ takes finitely many values, we can find a covering formed of B i (t i, z i ), i 1, such that Hence J(t i, z i ; u) M ϑ θ ε on A i := {(θ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ)) B i }. K(t i, z i ) M ϑ θ ε on A i. where [ ( ) ] K(t i, z i ) := esssup ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t u U ϑ V i,z i (T ) F ti If K is lsc is deterministic. K(θ(ω), Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ)(ω)) K(t i, z i ) ε M ϑ θ (ω) 2ε on A i.
32 We have for all stopping times θ (may depend on u and ϑ) [ ( ess inf E l Z u[ϑ θ ϑ],ϑ ) ] θ ϑ t,z (T ) F θ = Sθ ϑ ϑ V Mϑ θ. If the above is usc in space uniformly in the strategies, θ takes finitely many values, we can find a covering formed of B i (t i, z i ), i 1, such that Hence J(t i, z i ; u) M ϑ θ ε on A i := {(θ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ)) B i }. K(t i, z i ) M ϑ θ ε on A i. where [ ( ) ] K(t i, z i ) := esssup ess inf E l Z u[ϑ],ϑ t u U ϑ V i,z i (T ) F ti If K is lsc (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ(ω)), Mθ ϑ (ω) 3ε) Λ(θ(ω)) is deterministic.
33 To get rid of ε, and for non-regular cases (in terms of K and J), we work by approximation : One needs to start from (z, m ι) Λ(t) and obtain where Λ(t) := (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ), Mθ ϑ ) Λ(θ) P a.s. ϑ V { (z, m) : there exist (tn, z n, m n ) (t, z, m) such that (z n, m n ) Λ(t n ) and t n t for all n 1 }
34 To get rid of ε, and for non-regular cases (in terms of K and J), we work by approximation : One needs to start from (z, m ι) Λ(t) and obtain where Λ(t) := (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ), Mθ ϑ ) Λ(θ) P a.s. ϑ V { (z, m) : there exist (tn, z n, m n ) (t, z, m) such that (z n, m n ) Λ(t n ) and t n t for all n 1 Remark : M ϑ = M αϑ t,p := p + t αϑ s dw s, with α ϑ A, the set of predictable processes such that the above is a martingale. }
35 To get rid of ε, and for non-regular cases (in terms of K and J), we work by approximation : One needs to start from (z, m ι) Λ(t) and obtain where Λ(t) := (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ), Mθ ϑ ) Λ(θ) P a.s. ϑ V { (z, m) : there exist (tn, z n, m n ) (t, z, m) such that (z n, m n ) Λ(t n ) and t n t for all n 1 Remark : M ϑ = M αϑ t,p := p + t αϑ s dw s, with α ϑ A, the set of predictable processes such that the above is a martingale. Remark : The bounded variation part of S is useless : optimal adverse player control should turn S in a martingale. }
36 Reverse direction : Assume that {θ ϑ, ϑ V} takes finitely many values and that (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ(θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V.
37 Reverse direction : Assume that {θ ϑ, ϑ V} takes finitely many values and that (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ(θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V. Then K(θ ϑ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ )) Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ).
38 Reverse direction : Assume that {θ ϑ, ϑ V} takes finitely many values and that Then (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ(θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V. K(θ ϑ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ )) Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ). Play again with balls + concatenation of strategies (assuming smoothness) to obtain ū U such that [ ( ) ] E l Z (u θ ϑ ū)[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F θ Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ) ε P a.s. ϑ V.
39 Reverse direction : Assume that {θ ϑ, ϑ V} takes finitely many values and that Then (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ(θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V. K(θ ϑ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ )) Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ). Play again with balls + concatenation of strategies (assuming smoothness) to obtain ū U such that [ ( ) ] E l Z (u θ ϑ ū)[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F θ Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ) ε P a.s. ϑ V. By taking expectation [ ( ) ] E l Z (u θ ϑ ū)[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ε P a.s. ϑ V
40 Reverse direction : Assume that {θ ϑ, ϑ V} takes finitely many values and that Then (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ(θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V. K(θ ϑ, Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ )) Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ). Play again with balls + concatenation of strategies (assuming smoothness) to obtain ū U such that [ ( ) ] E l Z (u θ ϑ ū)[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F θ Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ ) ε P a.s. ϑ V. By taking expectation [ ( ) ] E l Z (u θ ϑ ū)[ϑ],ϑ t,z (T ) F t m ε P a.s. ϑ V so that (z, m ε) Λ(t).
41 To cover the general case by approximations, we need to start with where (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ ι (θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V, Λ ι (t) := { (z, p) : (t, z, p ) B ι (t, z, p) implies (z, p ) Λ(t ) }.
42 To cover the general case by approximations, we need to start with where (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ ϑ ), Mt,m(θ αϑ ϑ )) Λ ι (θ ϑ ) P a.s. ϑ V, Λ ι (t) := { (z, p) : (t, z, p ) B ι (t, z, p) implies (z, p ) Λ(t ) }. To concatenate while keeping the non-anticipative feature : Martingale strategies : α ϑ replaced by a : ϑ V a[ϑ] A in a non-anticipating way (corresponding set A) Non-anticipating stopping times : θ[ϑ] (typically first exit time of (Z u[ϑ],ϑ ), M a[ϑ] ) from a ball.
43 The geometric dynamic programming principle (GDP1) : If (z, m ι) Λ(t) for some ι > 0, then u U and {α ϑ, ϑ V} A such that (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ), Mt,m(θ)) αϑ Λ(θ) P a.s. ϑ V. (GDP2) : If (u, a) U A and ι > 0 are such that (Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,z (θ[ϑ]), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ[ϑ])) Λ ι (θ[ϑ]) P a.s. ϑ V for some family (θ[ϑ], ϑ V) of non-anticipating stopping times, then (z, m ε) Λ(t), ε > 0. Rem : Relaxed version of Soner and Touzi (2002) and B., Elie and Touzi (2009).
44 Application to the monotone case
45 Monotone case : Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y R d R with X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) with values in t,x,y independent of y and Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y y.
46 Monotone case : Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y R d R with X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) with values in t,x,y independent of y and Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y y. The value function is : ϖ(t, x, m) := inf{y : (x, y, m) Λ(t)}.
47 Monotone case : Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y R d R with X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) with values in t,x,y independent of y and Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y y. The value function is : ϖ(t, x, m) := inf{y : (x, y, m) Λ(t)}. Remark :
48 Monotone case : Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y R d R with X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) with values in t,x,y independent of y and Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y y. The value function is : ϖ(t, x, m) := inf{y : (x, y, m) Λ(t)}. Remark : If ϕ is lsc and ϖ ϕ, then Λ(t) {(x, y, m) : y ϕ(t, x, m)}.
49 Monotone case : Z u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y R d R with X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x = (X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x, Y u[ϑ],ϑ ) with values in t,x,y independent of y and Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y y. The value function is : ϖ(t, x, m) := inf{y : (x, y, m) Λ(t)}. Remark : If ϕ is lsc and ϖ ϕ, then Λ(t) {(x, y, m) : y ϕ(t, x, m)}. If ϕ is usc and ϕ ϖ then Λ ι (t) {(x, y, m) : y ϕ(t, x, m) + η ι } for some η ι > 0.
50 Thm :
51 Thm : (GDP1) : Let ϕ C 0 be such that arg min(ϖ ϕ) = (t, x, m). Assume that y > ϖ(t, x, m ι) for some ι > 0. Then, there exists (u, a) U A that Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y (θ ϑ ) ϕ(θ ϑ, X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x (θ ϑ ), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ ϑ )) P a.s. ϑ V.
52 Thm : (GDP1) : Let ϕ C 0 be such that arg min(ϖ ϕ) = (t, x, m). Assume that y > ϖ(t, x, m ι) for some ι > 0. Then, there exists (u, a) U A that Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y (θ ϑ ) ϕ(θ ϑ, X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x (θ ϑ ), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ ϑ )) P a.s. ϑ V. (GDP2) : Let ϕ C 0 be such that arg max(ϖ ϕ) = (t, x, m). Assume that (u, a) U A and η > 0 are such that Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y (θ[ϑ]) ϕ(θ[ϑ], X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x (θ[ϑ]), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ[ϑ]))+η P a.s. ϑ V. Then, y ϖ(t, x, m ε), ε > 0.
53 Thm : (GDP1) : Let ϕ C 0 be such that arg min(ϖ ϕ) = (t, x, m). Assume that y > ϖ(t, x, m ι) for some ι > 0. Then, there exists (u, a) U A that Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y (θ ϑ ) ϕ(θ ϑ, X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x (θ ϑ ), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ ϑ )) P a.s. ϑ V. (GDP2) : Let ϕ C 0 be such that arg max(ϖ ϕ) = (t, x, m). Assume that (u, a) U A and η > 0 are such that Y u[ϑ],ϑ t,x,y (θ[ϑ]) ϕ(θ[ϑ], X u[ϑ],ϑ t,x (θ[ϑ]), M a[ϑ] t,m (θ[ϑ]))+η P a.s. ϑ V. Then, y ϖ(t, x, m ε), ε > 0. Remark : In the spirit of the weak dynamic programming principle (B. and Touzi, and, B. and Nutz).
54 PDE characterization - waving hands version Assuming smoothness, existence of optimal strategies... y = ϖ(t, x, m) implies Y u[ϑ],ϑ (t+) ϖ(t+, X u[ϑ],ϑ (t+), M a[ϑ] (t+)) for all ϑ.
55 PDE characterization - waving hands version Assuming smoothness, existence of optimal strategies... y = ϖ(t, x, m) implies Y u[ϑ],ϑ (t+) ϖ(t+, X u[ϑ],ϑ (t+), M a[ϑ] (t+)) for all ϑ. This implies dy u[ϑ],ϑ (t) dϖ(t, X u[ϑ],ϑ (t), M a[ϑ] (t)) for all ϑ
56 PDE characterization - waving hands version Assuming smoothness, existence of optimal strategies... y = ϖ(t, x, m) implies Y u[ϑ],ϑ (t+) ϖ(t+, X u[ϑ],ϑ (t+), M a[ϑ] (t+)) for all ϑ. This implies dy u[ϑ],ϑ (t) dϖ(t, X u[ϑ],ϑ (t), M a[ϑ] (t)) for all ϑ Hence, for all ϑ, µ Y (x, y, u[ϑ] t, ϑ t ) L u[ϑ]t,ϑt,a[ϑ]t X,M ϖ(t, x, m) σ Y (x, y, u[ϑ] t, ϑ t ) = σ X (x, u[ϑ] t, ϑ t )D x ϖ(t, x, p) with y = ϖ(t, x, m) +a[ϑ] t D m ϖ(t, x, m)
57 PDE characterization - waving hands version Supersolution property where inf v V sup (u,a) N v ϖ ( µ Y (, ϖ, u, v) L u,v,a X,M ϖ ) 0 N v ϖ := {(u, a) U R d : σ Y (, ϖ, u, v) = σ X (, u, v)d x ϖ + ad m ϖ}.
58 PDE characterization - waving hands version Supersolution property where inf v V sup (u,a) N v ϖ ( µ Y (, ϖ, u, v) L u,v,a X,M ϖ ) 0 N v ϖ := {(u, a) U R d : σ Y (, ϖ, u, v) = σ X (, u, v)d x ϖ + ad m ϖ}. Subsolution property ( ) sup inf µ Y (, ϖ, u[v], v) L u[v],v,a[v] X,M ϖ 0 (u[ ],a[ ]) N [ ] ϖ v V where N [ ] ϖ := {loc. Lip. (u[ ], a[ ]) s.t. (u[ ], a[ ]) N ϖ( )}.
59 References R. Buckdahn and J. Li (2008). Stochastic differential games and viscosity solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs equations. SIAM SICON, 47(1) : H.M. Soner and N. Touzi (2002). Dynamic programming for stochastic target problems and geometric flows, JEMS, 4, B., R. Elie and N. Touzi (2009). Stochastic Target problems with controlled loss, SIAM SICON, 48 (5), B. and M. Nutz (2012). Weak Dynamic Programming for Generalized State Constraints, SIAM SICON, to appear. L. Moreau (2011), Stochastic target problems with controlled loss in a jump diffusion model, SIAM SICON, 49, , B. and N. M. Dang (2010). Generalized stochastic target problems for pricing and partial hedging under loss constraints - Application in optimal book liquidation, F&S, online. B. and V. Thanh Nam (2011). A stochastic target approach for P&L matching problems, MOR, 37(3),
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