:,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,, (, 1996 ;, 1994), 70 %,, 30 %(, 2002) (,1997 ;1998 ; 1999),,,, ( ) ;,,,,,,,,,,

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1 : ( ) :,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, (, 1996 ;, 1994), 70 %,, 30 %(, 2002) (,1997 ;1998 ; 1999),,,, ( ) ;,,,,,,,,,,,, :, ; ; ; ;, 30

2 2003 1,, 1978, 4218 %, % %, 70 %,,,, 2000, 3 %,, 10 % ; 84 %,, 1998, ( ) 28 %, ( ) 4 % ; 1999, GDP 17 %(Stern,2001), 50 % ; ( ) % ( Chenwei and Zhangjie, 2002),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, % (, 1996a),,,,,,,,,, 20 90,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) 1990 (M2/ GNP) 100 %, (, 1996), 31

3 :,, ;,,,,,,,,, (, 1998,pp ),,,,, 1989, 9 %, 11 % (,1998,p177),,,,, % , 1999, 14000, % (, 2002,p1219),,,,,,,,, ( Tobin, 1998,p1189),,,?,,,,,,,,,,,, (Qian, 1993), , ( ) 3319 %, 1991, 6618 % Mckinnon (1993,p1277),, 3Π , ( ) % (, 1998,p157) 1999, 580, %(,2000) 32

4 2003 1,,,, :,,,?!,, :, (Mishkin, 2001 ),,,,,,,,,,?,,, (, 1997),, ; ;,,,,,,,,?,, : E = r D (1), E, r, D, : r = 1 E = D (2) r = 0 E = 0 (3),,,,,, : ( r = 1),, ; ( r = 0),,,,,,,, ( 1, 0), ( 1Π2 1Π3 ) 33

5 :,,,,, 1, ;, 0,, 1 ;,,,,,, ( 8 %),,, :,, (Mishkin, 2001 ),, ( ) ( ),,,,,, ( ),,,,,, Mishkin (2001), : RO E = BΠE (4) (4), ROE, B, E, B, E, ROE,,, ;, : ROE sob = B fsc ΠE nrc (5) (5), ROE sob, B fsc, E nrc E nrc,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,, ;,,, 34

6 2003 1,,,,,,,,,,,, (5),, B fsc, : E nrc - E < B fsc - B (6) (4) (5),, : ROB sob > ROE (7) (7), E nrc - E B fsc - B,,,,, ROE sob < ROE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (5),,,,,,,,,,,, (2002) 35

7 :,,, 0 1 ; ( ),,,,,,,,,,, (, 2000),, 2000 :, 9, 1994 :, 1, 1996 : 1996 :,,, 2002 :,, 2002 :, 18, 1996 :, 1,1997 :, 6,1998 :,,1999 :,,,2000 :, 4 Chenwei and Zhangjie,2002, Financial Arrangements for the Growth of China s Non2SOEs,Working Paper,Berlin :Berlin School of Economics. Mckinnon,R. I.,1993, The Order of Economic Liberalization : Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy,second edition. Balti2 more :Johns Hopkins University press. Mishkin,F. S.,2001, The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets,Harper Collins College Publishers. Qian, Yingyi,1993,Lessens and Relevance of the Japanese Main Bank System for Financial Reform in China. Center for Economic Policy Re2 search,stanford University Press. Stern,N. H.,2001, Reform Perspectives in China : the Understanding of the World Bank,speech delivered at Beijing and Qinghua University. Tobin,J.,and Golub,S. S., 1998, Money, Credit and Capital,Mcgraw2Hill Companies,Inc. ( : ) ( : ),,,,

8 The Mystery of China s State2owned Banks Capital Zhang jie (School of Finance,Renmin University of China) The paper argues that the well2functioning of the state2owned banks (SOBs) in China under the condition of severe undercapital2 ization and a high ratio of bad loans should be attributed to the existence of a special capital structure. In this structure,the state is the shareholder of SOBs on the basis of the reputation it owns rather than on the basis of the capital it provides. The party actually providing the capital are households. Between the two parties,there exists the alliance in terms of capital which has vigorously sup2 ported the government s effort in the direction of mobilizing financial residuals via SOBs. The cost has been the increasing risks re2 sulting from low2quality bank loans. Undoubtedly,the government is more than willing to resolve the risks through reforming SOBs. However,the state reputation is unseparable. And that is why reforms in terms of capital structure have ended in failure. In light of this situation,the feasible alternative is to reform SOBs from the asset structure. Key Words : capital of banks ; financial residual ;state reputation ;reform of SOBs JEL Classification : H810,P350, G210 Can Monetary Policy Interfere with the Excessive Fluctuation of Stock Price? Feng Yongfu (Westsouth University of Finance and Economics) The author first come up with the question :Can monetary policy iron the excessive fluctuation of stock price? (1) The Portfolio Se2 lection Model in the perfect market shows :Under the given conditions,the stock price will never be overrated or undervalued. The perfect adjusting system of the market does not need the interference of monetary policy ; (2) after adjusting the restrictions of per2 fect market,the Portfolio Selection Model shows :first,under the information cost restriction (information cost is minimum),market has the function to do self2corrections. Second,all premises for central banks interference haven t be met. (3) The Portfolio Selec2 tion Model under the particular restrictions in China makes it clear that :The high expected rate of yield is covered mainly by the high2risk premium and high transaction cost. Interest rate regulation can never influence the high rate of yield in the ascending pro2 cess of the stock price,and also the serious hold2up problems in the descending process. In all,the monetary policy can do nothing to interfere with the excessive fluctuation of stock price. Key Words : Monetary Policy ;Stock Price fluctuation JEL Classification : E420, G100 Money, Taxes,and Federal Transfer in an Endogenous Gro wth Model with Multiple Levels of Government Xiao Yun & Gong Liutang (Wuhan University,Peking university) This paper extends Barro (1990) model and Gong and Zou(2002) model. It presents a standard,dynamic,endogenous growth model with cash2in2advance constraint and multiple levels of government. Tax on income,consumption,and capital are needed to finance an exogenous stream of governments expenditures. The model deals with Nash Equilibrium and examines effects of federal taxes, local taxes,money creation,degree of liquidity,and federal transfer on growth rate. It also discusses growth2maximizing and welfare2 maximizing choices of taxes,money creation and federal transfer. In general,money creation can stimulate the economy to grow slightly. And the higher is the degree of liquidity,the higher is the growth rate. Although different taxes have different effects,local wealth tax distorts the economy most severely among all taxes. Next we extend the model to the case with multiple private agents, multiple local governments,and the fedeal government. Key Words : Public expenditure ;Public capital formation ;Money ;Cash2in2advance constraint ; Intergovernmental transfer JEL Classification : E000,H200,H400,H700,O400,R500 93