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1 8 Ξ (, ) (, ) 1 2,, ;,,,, : m,, m, 2 ; ( ),,,, ;,,,, ( ) Ξ

2 ; 1, ν 1 Κν 1,,, : ; (1)R < 1,,,,, ( 2) R = 1, :, ( T = 0 S = 0), Stomm el(1961) :,, 1 ;,,,, ;, ( ), (4)R > R C,, ( 2), 1 Stomm el :, Stomm el ( 1961) W elander ( 1986) ;, M aro tzke (1990) Stomm el, : = d c, Κ= [ c 4Θ0ΑT ]ϑ, R = ΒS ΑT lander, c d, ϑ, Α Β,, Θ0, S T,, Stomm el,, (3) 1< R < R C (R C ),,, Stomm el (1961) 20, 80, Roo th (1982), W elander (1982),,, ;,,, W elander 3 W e2 9

3 10, ( ), 2, ( ) W elander (1986) Roo th (1982),,, M aro tzke (1990),,,, 2 W elander (1982),, 16,, W elander (1989), W in ton Sarach ik ( 1993), O GCM 3 ( W elander, 1982) 350 (D an sgaard, 1970 ) Joyce ( 1991 ) W e2, lander (1986),,,,,,W elander (1982), 400 O GCM, Cessi(1994),, Stomm el Roo th (1982) Stomm el (1961) N akam u ra (1994)

4 1998 1,,, H uang (1994) 3, O GCM,,, ( ), ( ) M aro tzke W elander, W illeb rand (1988) M aro tzke (H uang, 1992) B irchfield (1989), :, ( 2 ), 5000 :,,,, ;,,,,,, B irchfield ( 1990 ) B irchfield, O GCM, (P E- PW ) M aro tzke (1989),,,, :,,, W ang B irchfield (1992),,, ( ),, :,,L ohm ann (1996), 11

5 12 4. a) ( 1SV ); b) ( Stocker W righ t, 1991a),,,,, M aro tzke (1988),,,, O GCM,,, M aro tzke (1990) M aro tzke (1988), M aro tzke (1988), O GCM, W righ t Stocke (1991)

6 Stocker W righ t ( 1991a ) W righ t W righ t Stocker (1991) Stocker (1992) (,, ), ( ),, ( ), (SSS) F ichefet ( 4a), 18SV Hovine D up lessy (1994) (1SV = 10 6 m 3 s - 1 ) 40 N B roecker (1985), 40 S, 14, 000, , p su (1p su= 1ggkg), Sṫ L aw rence,, B roecker, Stocker ; , 15 N 0. 12SV 4p su, 4000, (1994a) 45 N, ( 4a) ( 4b) ;,, Schm idt M ysak (1996) W righ t Stocker (1991),,, Stocker M ysak (1992) W righ t Stocker (1992) Stocker W righ t (1991b) Sellers (1969),,,, W righ t Stocker (1992) (, Ekm an ),,,,, M aro tzke W illeb rand (1991),,, M ysak Stocker H uang (1993) ( 13

7 14 ), ; :,,, (1994b) ;,, :,, 4 ;, :,, O GCM, ;,, ;, :, 2 ;, ;, ;,,,, ( ) ; : ceanography, 1994, 24: ; O GCM ;, ;, ;, ;, [ 1 ] B irchfield G E. A coup led ocean2atmo sphere clim ate model: temperature versus salinity effects on the thermohaline circulation. C lim D yn, 1989, 4: [ 2 ] B irchfield G E, H W ang, M W yanṫ A bimodal cli2 m ate response contro lled by w ater transpo rt in a coup led ocean2atmo sphere box model. Paleo2 ceanogr, 1990, 5: [ 3 ] B irchfield G E, M W yant, H W ang. A coup led o2 cean2atmo sphere box model of the A tlantic ocean: a bimodal clim ate response. J M ar Sys, 1990, 1: 197 [ 4 ] B roecker W S, D M Peteet and D R ind. Does the o2 cean2atmo sphere system have mo re than one stable mode of operation? N ature, 1985, : [ 5 ] Cessi P. A simp le box model of stochastically fo rced thermohaline flow. Journal of Physical O 2 [ 6 ] D ansgaard W, Johnsen S J, C lausen H B, L angw ay C C. C lim ate reco rd revealed by the Camp Century ice co re. In: K. K. T urek in (Ed. ). T he L ate Ceno2 zo ic Glacial A ges, Yale, 1970: [ 7 ] F ichefet T, S Hovine and J C D up lessy. A model study of the A tlantic circulationn during the last

8 glacial m axim um. N ature, 1994, 372: [ 8 ] H uang R X. A dvances in theo ries of w ind2driven and thermohaline circulation ( a lecture series ). SO EST , U niversity of H aw aii at M anoa, Schoo l of O cean and Earth Science and T echno lo2 gy, 1994 [ 9 ] H uang R X, J R L uyten and H M Stomm el. M ulti2 p le equilibrium states in com bined therm al and saline circulation. phy, 1992, 22: Journal of Physical O ceanogra2 [ 10 ] Joyce T M. T hermohaline catastrophe in a simp le four2box model of the ocean clim ate. Res, 1991, 96: J Geophys [ 11 ] L ohm ann G, R Gerdes, D Chen. Stability of ther2 mohaline circulation in a simp le coup led model. T el2 lus, 1996, 48A : [ 12 ] M aro tzke J, P W elander and J W illebrand. Instabil2 ity and m ultip le steady states in a m eridional2p lane model of the thermohaline circulation. T ellus, 1998, 40A : [13 ] M aro tzke J. Instabilities and m ultip le equilibria of the thermohaline circulation. sṫ M eeresk. Kiel, 1990, 194: 126pp Ph. D. thesis, Ber. In2 [ 14 ] M aro tzke J and J W illebrand. M ultip le equilibria of the global thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical O ceanography, 1991, 21: [ 15 ] M ysak L A, Stocker T F and H uang F. Century2 scale variability in a random ly fo rced two dim en2 sional thermohaline ocean circulation model. m ate D ynam ics, 1993, 8: C li2 [ 16 ] N akam ura M, Stone P H, M aro tzke J. D estabiliza2 tion of the thermohaline circulation by atmo spheric eddy transpo rts. Journal of C lim ate, 1994, 7: [ 17 ] Roo th C. H ydro logy and ocean circulation. P rogress in O ceanography, 11, Pergamon, 1982: [ 18 ] Schm idt G A, L A M ysak. T he stability of a zonal2 ly averaged thermohaline circulation model. 1996, 48A : Tellus, [ 19 ] Sellers W D. A global clim ate model based on the energy balance of the earth2atmo sphere system. J A pp lm eteo r, 1969, 8: [20 ] Stocker T F, D G W righ ṫ A zonally averaged o2 cean model fo r the thermohaline circulation. Part II: Interocean circulation in the Pacific2A tlantic basin system. 1991a, 21: Journal of Physical O ceanography, [ 21 ] Stocker T F, D G W righ ṫ Rap id transition of the ocean s deep circulation induced by changes in sur2 face w ater flux. N ature, 1991b, 351: [ 22 ] Stocker T F, D G W righ t, L A M ysak. A zonally averaged coup led ocean2atmo sphere model fo r pale2 oclim ate studies. Journal of C lim ate, 1992, 5: [ 23 ] Stomm el H. T hermohaline convection w ith two sta2 ble regim es of flow. Tellus, 1961, 13: [ 24 ] W ang H, B irchfield G E. A n energy2salinity bal2 ance clim ate model: w ater vapo r transpo rt as a cause of changes in the global thermohaline circula2 tion. J Geophys Res, 1992, 97 (C2) : [ 25 ] W elander P. A simp le heat2salt o scillato r. D yn of A tmo s and O ceans, 1982, 6: [ 26 ] W elander P. T hermohaline effects in the ocean cir2 culation and related simp le models. L arge2scale T ranspo rt P rocesses in O ceans and A tmo sphere, J. W illebrand and D. L. T. A nderson, Eds. D. Publish ing, 1986: Reidel [ 27 ] W elander P. A new type of double2diffusive insta2 bility? Tellus, 1989, 41A : [ 28 ] W inton M, E S Sarach ik. T hermohaline o scillations induced by strong steady salinity fo rcing of ocean general circulation models. Journal of Physical O 2 ceanography, 1993, 23: [ 29 ] W righ t D G, T F Stockeṙ A zonally averaged ocean model fo r the thermohaline circulation. Part I:M od2 el developm ent and flow dynam ics. Journal of Phys2 ical O ceanography, 1991, 21 (12) : [ 30 ] W righ t D G, T F Stocker. Sensitivities of a zonally averaged global ocean circulation model. Res, 1992, 97: J Geophys [ 31 ],. ( ) :., 1994a, 18 ( ) : [ 32 ],. ( ) :., 1994b, 18 ( ) :

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