A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA

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1 A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA V o l. 55, N o. 2 M ar., 2000 : (2000) , 1, Guen ther F ischer 2, Sylvia P rieler 2 (11, ; 21, ) : ,, 3, H adcm 2 CGCM 1 ECHAM 4, 6, 3 GCM s, ( IIA SA ) (A EZ) : ; ; ; : P467; F32919 : A, (IPCC),, [1 ],, 10 [2 ],,, [3 ]!, [4 ] 1 CO 2 2 CO 2, (GCM ) CO 2,, [4 ],,, : ; : : ( ), (IIA SA ) 1999 (YSSP1999) [Foundation Item: Key P ro ject of N ineth F iveyearp lan, N o ; Young Scientist Summ er P rogram at the International Institute fo r A pp lied System s A nalysis, N o. YSSP1999 ] : (19692),,, E2m ail: lixd@ dls1iog1ac1cn

2 130 55,, , 310,,, G IS ( 1) 1 Tab11 The reference ra infall, average max imum and m in imum temperature in Ch ina gmm g g CO 2 ( ),,, [5 ], 4, 3 GCM, H adcm 2, CGCM 1 (T he first version of the Canadian Global Coup led M odel) ECHAM 4 3, CO , GCM s 113 GCM s,, GCM ; GCM, (1) H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s (2), ; H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s , , CGCM 1 GG, 2020s 2050s 2080s

3 2 : , Ξ Tab12 The deta ils of three GCM s and six climate change scenar ios H adcm 2 CGCM 1 ECHAM H adcm 2- GX H adcm 2- GS CGCM 1- GG CGCM 1- GS ECHAM 4- GG ECHAM 4- GS 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 2020s, 2050s, 2080s Ξ GX ; GG H adcm 2, 015%, 1% ; GS +, 3, 3 GCM , 2020s ; 2050s ; 2080s ; ( ) 30 (3) H adcm 2 GX, CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS,,,, 11312,, GCM s, : (1) ( CGCM 1 GS ), H adcm 2 GX CGCM 1 GG ECHAM 4 GG3, 2020s 2050s 2080s 518% 1014% 1816% ; 112% 417% 215% 812% 1014% 1316% (2), H adcm 2, CGCM 1, ECHAM 4 3, 2020s 2050s 2080s 419% 714% 1119% ; 314% 711% 1012% 1215% 1510% 2016% (2) H adcm 2 GX ECHAM 4 GG, ; H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GS, (3) H adcm 2, ; CGCM 1,,, ECHAM 4,

4 (Agro- Ecolog ica l Zon ing), (IIA SA ) (A EZ) 20 70, (FAO ) [6 ], FAO IIA SA, A EZ 1996 IIA SA [5, 7 ], A EZ 3,,,, G IS,, 212,, H adcm 2 GX, + 1,, : (1), +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 14% 20% 34% (H adcm 2 GX ), 12% 21% 42% (CGCM 1 GG ) 12% 19% 22% (ECHAM 4 GG ) (2),,,, (3) +,,, +,, + (4), +,,,

5 2 : H adcm 2 GX, + F ig11 Changes of M ulti2cropp ing index under H adcm 2 GX scenario fo r irrigated and rain2fed conditions

6 (% ) Tab13 Impacts of climate change on arable land area in Ch ina for irr igated & ra in-fed condition s (% ) g hm 2 H adcm 2 GX H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS ECHAM 4 GG ECHAM 4 GS 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s :, H adcm 2 GS +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 6% 13% 19%, H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s 6% 12% 19%, +, +, 215% 1612% ;, 213% 1810%, : ;,, CGCM 1 GG,, 2020s 2050s 2080s 517% 116% 513%, CGCM 1 GG, + 2,, :

7 2 : CGCM 1 GG, + F ig12 Changes of land p roductivity under CGCM 1 GG scenario fo r irrigated and rain2fed conditions

8 (% ) Tab14 Impacts of climate change on cereal production in Ch ina for irr igated & ra in-fed condition s (% ) H adcm 2 GX H adcm 2 GS CGCM 1 GG CGCM 1 GS ECHAM 4 GG ECHAM 4 GS t 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s 20s 50s 80s H adcm 2 GX +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 1610% 2419% 3618% ; 1211% 1011% 3513%, H adcm 2 GX +, 2020s 2050s 2080s 615% 213% 511% ; 114% 111% 610%,, ; +, ;,, +, 115% 710% ;, 111% 1216% 3, : GCM ;

9 2 : 137, ; A EZ, [5 8 ] : (1),, H adcm 2 GX, 2020s 2050s 2080s ,,,,, (2),,, + ;, + (3),,,, +, 215% 1612% ;, 213% 1810% (4),,, +, 115% 710% ;, 111% 1216%, (References) [1 ] Hough ton J T, M eira F ilho L G, Callander BA et al. C lim ate change 1995 T he science of clim ate change: contribution of wo rk ing group I to the second assessm ent repo rt of the internationalpanel on clim ate change[m ]. M elbourne (A ustralia): the P ress Syndicate of the U niversity of Cam bridge, [ 2 ] Cynth ia R, D aniel H. C lim ate Change and the Global H arvest: Po tential Impacts of Greenhouse Effect on A griculture [M ]. N ew Yo rk: O xfo rd U niversity P ress, [ 3 ] Cai Yunlong, Sm it Barry. V ulnerability and A dap tation of Ch inese A griculture to Global C lim ate Change [J ]. A cta Geograph ica Sinica, 1996, 51 (3): ( In Ch inese) [, Barry Sm iṫ [J ]., 1996, 51 (3): ] [4 ] L in E rda, W ang Houxuan, W ang J inghua et al. M odeling the impacts of global clim ate change on Ch inese agriculture[m ]. Beijing: Ch inese A griculture T echno logy Publish ing House, [M ]. :, ] ( In Ch inese) [,,. [5 ] F ischer G, V elthuizen H T. C lim ate change and global agricultural po tential p ro ject: A case study of Kenya [M ]. T he wo rk ing paper of IIA SA, [6 ] FAO. R epo rt on the agro2eco logical zones p ro jecṫ W o rlds So il R esources R epo rt 48[M ]. FAO, Rom e, [7 ] FAO. A gro2eco logical assessm ents fo r national p lanning: the examp le of Kenya. FAO So ils Bulletin 67[M ]. FAO, Rom e, [8 ] FAO. A gro2eco logical zoning Guidelineṡ FAO So ils Bulletin 73[M ]. FAO, Rom e, 1996.

10 Climate Change and Its Im pacts on Ch ina s Agr iculture TAN G Guo2p ing 1, L I X iu2b in 1, Guen ther F ischer 2, Sylvia P rieler 2 (11Institu te of Geog rap hy, Ch inese A cad em y of S ciences, B eij ing ; 21Interhational Institu te of A pp lied S y stem s A naly sis, A ustria) Abstract: T hough analyze the po ten tial impacts of global clim ate change on Ch ina s agricu ltu re, the m ean ingfu l reference fo r Ch ina s agricu ltu re in the fu tu re can be show n. F irst, acco rding to the h isto rical m eteo ro logical data from 310 clim ato logical station s du ring , the baseline clim ate in Ch ina is analyzed. T hen, th ree general circu lation models, i. e., H adcm 2, CGCM 1 and ECHAM 4 are cho sen and m eanw h ile six clim ate change scenario s con structed. T h ree models above are u sed to sim u late Ch ina s clim ate changes under differen t scenario s fo r th ree periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080ṡ U nder th ree model run s, air temperatu re is expected to increase in all region s of Ch ina. Fo r examp le, under H adcm 2 GX scenario, annual m ean air temperatu re w ill increase 1. 5, 2. 5 and 3. 8 in 2020s, 2050s, 2080s respectively. In addition, the increasing m agn itude of air temperatu re in h igh latitude area is larger than that in low latitude area, and in in land area larger than that in coastal area. F inally, based on th ree GCM s resu lts, an exp licit geograph ic model, i. e., the A EZ model developed and imp roved at IIA SA, is app lied to assess the impacts of clim ate change on Ch ina s agricu ltu ral land p roductivity. T he impact assessm en t m ain ly focu ses on the changes of m u lti2cropp ing index, land p roductivity, arab le land area and to tal po ten tial cereal p roduction. T he findings show : (1) T he average m agn itude of increase in m u lti2cropp ing index is larger in the sou thw est, cen tral and no rth of Ch ina than that in the no rthw est and sou th of Ch ina. (2) D ue to clim ate change, the increasing temperatu re and rainfall in the no rtheast, no rthw est and p lateau of Ch ina has a po sitive influence on their arab le land area and to tal po ten tial cereal p roduct ion. Conversely, the increa sing tem p era tu re and decrea sing ra infa ll in the sou theast, cen tral and sou thw est of Ch ina has a negative influence on their arab le land area and po ten tial cereal p roduction. Fo r w ho le Ch ina, arab le land area is p ro jected to increase in a new clim ate condition. T he changing scope of arab le land area varies from 215% to 1612% under irriga ted and ra in2fed cond it ion, and from 213% to 1810% under ra in2fed cond it ion. ( 3) C lim a te change affect s land p roduct ively in no rthea stern Ch ina po sit ively. How ever, it ha s a nega t ive influence on land p roduct ively in sou thw estern Ch ina and T ibet. O n the average, clim a te change affect s land p roduct ivity in Ch ina negatively. T he decreasing scope changes from 1. 5% to 7. 0% under irrigated and rain2fed condition, and from 1. 1% to 12. 6% under rain2fed condition. Key words: Global clim ate change; General C ircu lation M odel; A gro2eco logical Zon ing; L and p roductivity; Ch ina