V ladim irov A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.

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1 A CTA GEO GRA PH ICA S IN ICA V o l. 55, N o. 3 M ay, 2000 : (2000) , 2, 1 (11, ; 21, ) :, 40, 4,, 39, : ; ; ; : P33112; P333; P34311 : A 20 70, ,,,,, (1) : , , , 1997, 13, 226, 704 km, 90% 1998, (2) :,,,,, V ladim irov [1 ],, 4, 4,, : ; : : (KZ9512A 12203), 973(G ) [Foundation Item: Key P ro ject of Ch inese A cadem y of Sciences, N o. KZ9512A 12203; 973 P ro ject of M inistry of Sciences, N o. G ] : (19342 ),,,, 973,, E2m ail:

2 F ig11d ates of drying2up courses in each month at L ijin Station in 1974, 1989, 1992, and 1997,, [2 ], g 2 F ig12facto rs influencing on drying2up courses of the low er H uanghe R iver 2,, ()(3)

3 3 : F ig13d istribution of 18 hydro logic stations along the m ain course of the H uanghe R iver 2,, 18 6, 6, () (1) 1 Tab11Correlation coeff ic ien ts of runoff, prec ip itation, and temperature of station s along the ma in course of the Huanghe R iver

4 260 55,,,, 3, 4 : (710 ) (11 6 ) 4,, 311, 3 : [3 ] :,,,,,, 3 [4, 5 ], 3 :,, 11,, (4),,,,,,,,,, [ 6 ] , 1986, 2, ,, %,,, m 3, 70, m 3, 8090, m 3,

5 3 : 261 4(% ) F ig14d ecrease percentage of base flow of m iddle and low er H uanghe R iver m %, g,, 312, [4, 7 ], 3, 3, 3 [3 ], (2) 2 ( : a) Tab12Per iodic ity of natural runoff ser ies of Huanghe R iver (years) () , 7, 10,

6 ,, q (t) [8 ] : q (t) = q (t) - qλ Ρ (321) q λ Ρq (t), q (t), f i (i = 1, 2,,M ),M = N 2 Schm idt, f 3, f 4,, f M, Ff 2 Gram 2, f 2, f 3,, f M M - 1, f 2, f 3,, f M q (t), : q (t) = M i= 2 Υif i (t) + e (t) (322) q (t) ; f i (t) ; Υi e (t), : CS C 2k = Q k Q x + ΚN N k (323) Q k ; Q x ; k ; N ; N k ; Κt, t q^ ^ q (N + t) = Υ0 + ; f i ; Υ0 Υi k i= 1 Υif i (N + t) t = 1, 2 (324),,,, 3, 8%16%,,,, 5, 4 40, , 1997, m 3, % % % % [9 ], (3) 4 (1), 4, ,

7 3 : 263 g10 8 m 3 a F ig15comparison betw een calculated runoffs and real runoffs from each series at H uayuankou Station 3 Tab13Prediction of each runoff composite ser ies at Huayuankou Station by using the orthogonal ization & selection m odel g% g% g% g% g10 8 m 3 g10 8 m 3 g10 8 m 3 a (2) 11,,,, (3), 3

8 ; 710 (4) 90% (References) [1 ]M cm ahon T A, A renas A D. M ethods of computation of low stream flow [M ]. UN ESCO, [ 2 ]L iu Changm ing, L iu Yongw ei. Influence of D rying up Courses of L ow er H uanghe R iver on Environm ent and Counterm easure[a ]. In: D evelopm ent Bulletin of CA S[C ]. Beijing: Science P ress, ( In Ch inese) [,. [A ]. : [C ]. :, ] [3 ] Chen X iande (ed. ). H ydro logy in the H uanghe R iver [M ]. Zhengzhou: Yellow R iver H ydraulic Engineering P ress, ( In Ch inese) [. [M ]. :, ] [ 4 ]Q in A iji, Chen Xueying, Zheng Yanxia. Statistical analysis on the tim e series of runoff at Yichang[J ]. H y d rology, 1993, 77 (5): ( In Ch inese) [,,. [J ]., 1993, 77 (5): ] [5 ]Ko ttegoda N T. Stochastic W ater R esource T echno logy [M ]. J in Guangyan ( translated). Beijing: A gricultural P ress, ( In Ch inese) [Ko ttegoda N T. [M ].. :, ] [ 6 ]Chen X iande, L i Xuem ei, L u guangqi. D rying up Courses of L ow er H uanghe R iver & V ariable Characteristic of W ater R esources, Research and P ractice on Sustainable M anagem ent of W ater Resources [M ]. W uhan: W uhan M app ing U niversity of Science and T echno logy P ress, ( In Ch inese) [,,. [M ]. :, ] [7 ]T ian Zheng. T heo ry and M ethod to D eal w ith D ynam ic D ata- T im e Series A nalysis[m ]. X i an: N o rth W est Engineering U niversity P ress, ( In Ch inese) [. - [M ]. :, ] [8 ]W ei Fengying, Cao Hongxing. M athem aticalm odels of L ong2term P rediction and Its A pp lication [M ]. Beijing: M eteo ro logy P ress, ( In Ch inese) [,. [M ]. :, ] [ 9 ] Zhu P ingsheng, H u Guifang, Zhang Sup ing. A nalysis and tendency p rediction of w ater resource in Shandong P rovince [ J ]. M eteorology, 1998, 24 (3): ] ( In Ch inese) [,,. [J ]., 1998, 24 (3): 3 Analysis on Runoff Ser ies w ith Spec ial Reference to D ry ing up Courses of L ower Huanghe R iver L IU Chang2m ing 1, 2, CH EN G L i 1 (11Institu te of Geog rap hy, CA S, B eij ing ; 21Colleg e of R esou rces and E nv ironm ental S ciences, B eij ing N orm al U niversity, B eij ing ) Abstract: V iew ing the mo re and mo re seriou s phenom ena of cou rse drying2up of low er H uanghe R iver, tak ing 1987 fo r exam p le, the to ta l du ra t ion of d rying2up reached 226 dayṡ Based on the system atic analysis of the influencing facto rs, tw o aspects from bo th w ater dem and and w ater supp ly shou ld be con sidered. A nd in the aspect of w ater supp ly there ex ist fou r layers, tha t is, p recip ita t ion, t ran sp ira t ion, runoff, and g roundw a ter, that affect the drying2up of low er H uanghe R iver. Con sidering the drying up takes p lace at the dry season every year, base flow m u st p lay an impo rtan t ro le. Fu rthermo re, the mon th ly natu ral runoff from 18 hydro logical station s along the m ain

9 3 : 265 cou rse of the H uanghe R iver betw een the 1950s and the 1990s w ere divided in to fou r series w h ich are analyzed separately w ith tim e series analysis. T heses fou r series are yearly runoff series, w et season runoff series (from Ju ly to O ct), dry season runoff series (from Sep to June nex t year), and the low est mon th ly runoff series as base flow. the dynam ic law comp rehen sively and system atically. In th is w ay, abou t the runoff in the H uanghe R iver ba sin w a s b rough t to ligh t Som e very m ean ingfu l conclu sion s have been d raw n. F irst, the runoff in low er reaches of the H uanghe R iver com es m ain ly from the up stream runoff rather than from local p recip itation and tran sp iration. Second, the drying up is mo stly cau sed by hum an exp lo itation. V iew ing from these po in ts, a un ifo rm basin exp lo itation and m anagem en t shou ld be put in to p ractice. T he year of 1999 is the best examp le. In that year becau se a un ifo rm basin m anagem en t concern ing w ater resou rce u tilization started to carry ou t, the cou rse drying up decreased to 42 dayṡ T h ird, the base flow of the H uanghe R iver from the very start of the m iddle reaches has been keep ing on dropp ing in the last 4 decades, w h ich w ou ld lead to a mo re deep though t abou t reason s and strategic ideas fo r the low er H uanghe R iver drained dry and m anagerial po licy. Becau se the bed at the low er reaches of the H uanghe R iver has been raised h igher than the su rrounding ground, it is impo ssib le fo r groundw ater at the low er reaches to flow in to the cou rseṡ T he decreasing base flow in the m iddle reaches in the past 40 years cau sed the decrease of base flow, w h ich m igh t partly lead to the drying up. L ast, base flow is no t directly related w ith yearly runoff of the H uanghe R iver, since they have d ifferen t p eriod s. F ina lly, o rthogona liza t ion & selection model cou ld be app lied satisfacto rily in to the fo recasting of runoff in the H uanghe R iver. H ere, T he fin ial p redicting function is ju st as fo llow ing. q^ ^ q (N + t) = Υ0+ k i= 1 Υif i (N + t) t= 1, 2, is the p redicting runoff; f is m ean generation function; and Υ0 and Υi are coefficien tṡ W ith the model, the sim ilitude p recision cou ld be abou t 90%. Fo r examp le, the calcu lated runoff at the mon th ly low est in 1987 is on ly hundred m illion m 3 per year, w h ich is so low that its anom aly percen tage is 21411%. real drough t background, w h ich m ade the cou rse drying up w o rst in T he resu lt acco rds w ith the In one w o rd, bo th hum an and natu ral facto rs exert impacts on the cou rses drying up of the low er H uanghe R iver to differen t degreed and from differen t w ays. Key words: t im e series ana lysis; na tu ra l runoff; o rthogona liza t ion & select ion m odel; dried2up of H uanghe R iver