D ecision2m ak ing M odel Inco rpo rating R isk Behavio r under P ro ject R isk M anagem en t

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1 : (2001) , (1., ) : : : TU 72 : A α D ecision2m ak ing M odel Inco rpo rating R isk Behavio r under P ro ject R isk M anagem en t L I Q i2m ing 1, SH EN L i2yin 2 (1. Schoo l of C ivil Engineering, Southeast U niversity, N anjing , Ch ina 2. D epartm ent of Building and R eal E state, Hong Kong Po lytechnic U niversity, H K, Ch ina) Abstract: T h is paper adop ts an alternative app roach to investigate risk behavio r th rough the investigation of rish characteristic. Fo llow ing the review on risk characteristics, th is study estab lishes the concep t of risk attractiveness, risk con strain ts and risk balance p rocesṡ T hese concep tual developm en ts lead th is study to the establishm ent of risk2behavio r decision2m ak ing model w h ich integrate risk m anagem ent techniques and risk behavio ṙ Keywords: risk effect risk behavio r decision2m ak ing model risk m anagem enṫ 1 :,,, L eslie [1 ] Godfrey, [2 ] F lanagan (B rainsto rm ing), (T ree diagram s), ( Influence D iagram s) [3 ], (R isk m easurem ent), (Sensitivity analysis), (P robability analysis) [3-5 (Sim ulation technique) ], [6-10, 16 ] α :

2 ,, A s A k intoye, [8 ] [3 ], - 2 [7, 11 ] :,,,,,, [4, 7, 11, 12 ], : 1), 2) 3), 4), 5) 6)

3 10 2 3, [3, 4, 13 ] 3 311, :,, (, D RA ( 1): g ( A 1) (A 2) (D RA ) (A 3) (A 4) 1, A 1,A 2, A 3,A 4 (D RA ),, : D RA = f A (A 1, A 2, A 3, A 4) (2. 1), : A 1, A 2, A 3, A 4, D RA A 1, A 2, A 3, A 4, D RA m ax [D RA ] = f (m ax A 1, m ax A 2, m ax A 3, m ax A 4) (2. 2) m in [D RA ] = f (m in A 1, m in A 2, m in A 3, m in A 4) (2. 3),,,, 312 :,,,,

4 (, D R C ) ( 2): (C 1) (C 2) (D R C ) (C 3) (C 4) 2 (D R C ), : D R C = f c (c1, c2, c3, c4) (2. 4), C 1, C 2, C 3, C 4, D R C C 1, C 2, C 3, C 4, D R C m ax [D R C ] = f (m ax C 1, m ax C 2, m ax C 3, m ax C 4) (2. 5) m in [D R C ] = f (m in C 1, m in C 2, m in C 3, m in C 4) (2. 6),,,,,, 3. 3,,,, (B ), 3 B, 3 ( ) 3,,, 2,, g g 3 :

5 D RA > D R C, A OB, D RA < D R C, CB D, D RA = D R C B, D R E, 0ΦD R C Φ 1 0ΦD RA Φ 1 D R E = D R C - D RA D R C = f C - f A, - 1 Φ D R E Φ 1 f C D RA > D R C, A OB, - 1ΦD R E < 0, D RA = D R C, B, D R E = 0 D RA < D R C, CB D, 0< D R E Φ 1, D R E, 4 (g ) (g ) OM A 1, A 2,, A n, D RA 1, D RA 2,, D RA n, D R C 1, D R C 2, D R C n, D R E (A 1), D R E (A 2), D R E (A 3),, D R E (A n) - 1ΦD R E (A i) Φ 0, i= 1, 2,, n, 4 0< D R E (A j) Φ 1, j = 1, 2,, n D R E (A i), A i, : B 1,B 2,,B n : D R E (B 1), D R E (B 2),, D R E (B n) : D R E (B ) = m in [D R E (B i) ]Φ 0, 1Φ iφ n D R E (B ), 4 411,, [3, 4, 13 ], [3 ], 5 5 1) A, 2) B, A C 3) C,

6 , ( ) 6, 7, 8, 6 7 6, (A,B, C ) D RA A > D R CB > D R CC 7, (A,B, C ), D RA C> D RA B > D RA A. 8, B A B B B C,

7 R x : R A Φ R x Φ R C, : (A ) (C ), 9 B AB DB CB E X Y Z, : 1) Y, Z ( = ), B Y > B Z,,, 2) X Y, R x < R Y, (R A ), 9 (D R E = 0), (R C),, 5

8 , : [1 ] L eslie Edw ard. P ractical R isk M anagem ent in the Construction Industry [M ]. T hom as T elfo rd, 1995, [2 ] Patrick S Godfrey. Contro l of R isk - A Guide to the System atic M anagem ent of R isk from Construction[M ]. C IR IA, 1996, [3 ] F lanagan R, N o rm an G. R isk M anagem ent and Construction[M ]. B lackw ell Scientific Publications, 1993, , , [4 ] Shen, L Y. A pp lication of R isk M anagem ent to the Ch inese Construction Industry [D ]. U K: U n iversity of R eading, [5 ] Shen L Y. Sim ulation in Construction E stim ation [R ]. D epartm ent of Building & R eal E state, Hong Kong Po lytechn ic U n iversity, 1993, [6 ] Jerry S Ro senbloom. A Case Study in R isk M anagem ent [M ]. P rentice2h all, Inc., Englew ood C liffs, 1972,N. J [7 ] D avid H ertz, How ard T hom aṡ P ractical R isk A nalysis: A n A pp roach T h rough Case H isto ries[m ]. John w iley & Son ṡ 1984, 1-5, [8 ] A S A k intoye. Environm ental risk assessm ent of p rivate finance initiative p ro jects[a ]. P roceedings on Construction and the Environm ent[c ]. C IB W o rld Building, [9 ] Shen L Y, W cw u, Skng. R isk m anagem ent fo r sino2fo reign jo int ventures in the Ch inese Construction [A ]. 1998, P roceedings on Construction and the Environm ent [C ], C IB W o rld Building, [ 10 ] Jam es M. R isk M anagem ent in C ivil, M echanical and Structural Engineering [M ]. T hom as T elfo rd, 1996, [ 11 ] Jake A nsell, F rank W harton. R isk A nalysis, A ssessm ent and M anagem ent [M ]. John W iley & Son s, 1992, [12 ] N eil C rockfo rd. A n Introduction to R isk M anagem ent [M ]. W oodhead2faulkner, Cam bridge, 1986, [ 13 ] L ifson M W, Shaifer E F. D ecision and R isk A nalysis fo r Construction M anagem ent [M ]. John W iley & Sons, Inc [ 14 ] Johnuc Ch icken, M ichael R H aynṡ T he R isk R ank ing T echnique in D ecision M ak ing [M ], Pergam on P ress, [15 ] D ick son G C A. R isk A nalysis[m ]. W itherby & Co. L td, 1991: 1-6. [ 16 ] John F Burchett, R ao V M T umm ala. T he app lication of the risk m anagem ent p rocess in cap ital investm en t decision s fo r EHV tran sm issiou line p ro ject [ J ]. Con struction M anagem en t & Econom ics, 1998, 16 (2): [17 ] Roozbeh Kangari. R isk M anagem ent Percep tions & T rends of U. S Construction [J ]. Journal of Con struction Engineering &M anagem en t, 1995, (12):

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